Optimal control analysis applied to a two-patch model for Guinea worm disease




Mushayabasa, Steady
Losio, Anthony
Modnak, Chairat
Wang, Jin

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Texas State University, Department of Mathematics


We applied optimal control theory to a mathematical model for guinea worm disease, to determine the effectiveness of optimal education campaigns on long-term dynamics of the disease. Our model is concerned with two different host populations, represented by two patches, sharing a common water source. We computed the basic reproduction number of the model and demonstrated that whenever the reproduction number is less than unity the disease dies out in the community. Also we established that when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity the disease persists. Utilizing optimal control theory, we explored the potential of time dependent education to eliminate the disease within 120 months. The model showed that time dependent education can be successful to minimize disease prevalence in the two patches, however, its success strongly depends on the total cost of implementation as well as its maximum strength.



Mathematical model, Guinea worm disease, Optimal control theory


Mushayabasa, S., Losio, A. A. E., Modnak, C., & Wang, J. (2020). Optimal control analysis applied to a two-patch model for Guinea worm disease. <i>Electronic Journal of Differential Equations, 2020</i>(70), pp. 1-23.


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