A Quantitative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Frequency within the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal




Meyer, Jessica M.

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This research examines characteristics, and trends, of tropical cyclone occurrences in the Northern Indian Ocean area between 1950 and 2020. Data from the India Meteorological Department was used to examine storm characteristics, while statistical analysis identified temporal trends. In addition, an attempt was made to identify the influence of the phase of the IOD and ENSO on tropical cyclone occurrences. Results from a Cox-Stuart non-parametric test found that there are significant trends in frequency of tropical cyclones within the Bay of Bengal during August, September, the Southwest Monsoon season (from June to September), and annually. Plotted regression analyses exhibited statistically significant slopes for September, the Southwest Monsoon season, and annually of -0.007, -0.016, and -0.028, respectively. No statistically significant trends were found within the Arabian Sea using the same alpha value of 0.025. The Chi-Square test of independence rejected the null hypothesis of IOD – ENSO independence during May, September, October, and the post-monsoon season with an alpha value of 0.001.



Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Tropical cyclone


Meyer, J. M. (2022). <i>A quantitative analysis of tropical cyclone frequency within the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal</i> (Unpublished thesis). Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas.


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